Given the events of recent weeks and months, I would like to take this opportunity to provide an update on the outlook for the Territory economy.
The fundamentals of our economy remain strong.
Seasonally adjusted State Final Demand - or SFD - grew by 3.3 per cent in the March quarter 2011 - this was the strongest growth rate in the country.
In the nine months to March 2011, SFD grew by a solid 6 per cent – the strongest three-quarter growth rate since the June quarter 2007 - and the strongest growth compared to other jurisdictions.
We experienced the equal-lowest consumer price inflation of the capital cities in 2010-11 at 2.7 per cent.
The ACT labour market performs well compared with other jurisdictions.
We have the lowest unemployment rate in Australia.
It was 4 per cent in July 2011, well below the national average, and we have the highest participation rate at 72.5 per cent.
Our housing market also continues to perform well.
Current housing indicators point to stabilising growth, after the peaks which occurred following the Commonwealth Government’s stimulus measures.
The trend of housing finance commitments for owner occupiers in the ACT remained above its five-year average in June 2011.
The value of housing finance commitments for individual investors for new and existing dwellings increased again in June 2011 for the third consecutive month.
It too remains above its five-year monthly average.
The Government’s policies and programs are working to keep our economy strong.
Year-on-year to the March quarter 2011, dwelling investment increased by 26.1 per cent - and dwelling investment was the second largest contributor to SFD growth.
Data shows residential investment remains strong, with residential building approvals in the ACT increasing to a record level in June 2011.
This was the ninth consecutive monthly increase, and approvals remain significantly above their five-year monthly average.
The number of ACT residential building approvals rose by 28.7 per cent year-on-year to June 2011.
Nationally, it decreased by 5.1 per cent.
Through a range of initiatives in the 2011-12 Budget, the Government continues to release more residential land.
Over the next four years, the Land Release Program aims to deliver 18,500 residential dwelling sites.
Strong population growth in the Territory is also supporting our economy.
The ACT’s residential population increased by 2 per cent in the year ending 31 December 2010.
This is the highest annual growth in two decades.
Compared to other jurisdictions, it was the second strongest population growth after the mining state of Western Australia.
As Members would be aware, the degree of uncertainty surrounding the global economic situation has increased.
Global financial markets are experiencing extraordinary financial instability flowing from a deepening of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis and the United States’ growth and sovereign debt woes.
The volatility in the currency, equity and interest rate markets has been severe.
International equities have fallen substantially since the beginning of July and market volatility has affected Australian equities and interest rates.
We must be clear: the volatility in markets experienced in recent days is not solely a function of the recent downgrade of the US’ credit rating. Global share markets have been deteriorating since July.
This is due to Euro sovereign debt concerns, caused by the risk of a default by Greece and challenges for Portugal and Ireland.
More recently, possible defaults on Italian and Spanish debt - and the continuing poor economic conditions in the United States - have further increased uncertainty.
Global financial markets are being affected by this intense uncertainty, and as a result - share markets are fluctuating wildly.
We can expect continuing volatility, a continued focus on excessive global public debt and continued weakness in consumer spending in developed economies.
We can expect this to continue until market concerns and uncertainty can be appeased with clear policy responses from governments and from central banks.
Experts consider that there is little change in the economic fundamentals underscoring the global and national economies.
In a recent statement, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that Australia’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2 per cent for calendar year 2011 and by 3 per cent in 2012.
This is expected to be on the back of strong demand for commodities, and private investment in mining and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
While there are some questions over the strength of the ‘developed economies’ - particularly the United States and Europe - the outlook for ‘developing economies’ such as China and India - remains positive.
If the international outlook worsens significantly, short-term domestic impacts are likely to come from a further loss in business and consumer confidence.
This in turn would impact on private sector investment and employment, household consumption and the housing market.
Consumer confidence in Australia is currently at a relatively low level.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment shows in its Consumer Sentiment Index that confidence is 24.8 per cent below its level a year ago.
This was the situation prior to the events of the last few weeks.
And we can expect to see more.
Financial market turmoil undermines consumer confidence and in turn - falling consumer confidence is often associated with a slowdown in household consumption.
Household consumption is likely to remain weak for some time as households focus on protecting their balance sheets by saving or paying down debt.
The prospects of the Reserve Bank using its monetary policy levers in the short-term is now less likely.
This should provide a stabilising effect on the national and domestic economy.
Market volatility and some recent softer-than-expected domestic economic data could mean the RBA might not increase the cash rate in the near future as many commentators previously expected. There is, in fact, some prospect that the next movement will be downwards.
This would provide some temporary relief to consumers, home owners with a mortgage and businesses.
While the ACT economy continues to perform strongly, there is no doubt that downside risks to the budget in particular have increased.
It is unclear at this stage whether the risks will transpire.
In comparison to many countries, Australia is well positioned to meet the challenges to our economy.
This is also the case for the ACT.
Economic Policy makers here and nationally have ample scope to react to any negative external shocks should that be required.
Because of its current monetary policy stance and sound fiscal position, Australia has options in both monetary and fiscal policy to respond to a global downturn.
Although some sectors such as tourism and education currently face challenges from a high Australian dollar, overall the ACT economy is well placed to face any adverse impacts.
But as I indicated earlier the budget now faces noticeable risks.
There is a risk of slower growth in the GST pool due to the lower household consumption.
If this eventuates, it will have implications for the ACT Budget.
There could also be direct impacts if the financial environment changes substantially.
These include lower investment returns for both our superannuation investments and the Territory’s cash balances, and higher superannuation liability and expenses.
There could be revenue impacts as well, as uncertainty may restrict private investment, which would affect revenue such as conveyance duty and payroll tax.
All these impacts could be partially offset by lower borrowing costs.
However, as I indicated earlier, international and domestic economic fundamentals remain strong and the situation is unclear.
The risks remain just that - risks only.
The ACT Government stands ready to deal with any negative shocks to our economy.
We have a track record of sound and sustainable economic and financial management.
We will maintain a close watch on events abroad, in Australia, and in the Territory.
And if necessary, we will act.
The underlying budget structure is sound as a result of prudent financial management.
If a negative economic scenario unfolds, we will adjust our policy settings to maintain the Territory’s strong financial position.
The ACT economy continues to perform well and we benefit from a strong demographic base and an economic structure that will substantially shield us from negative global economic shocks.
The Territory’s high-income demographic and our young and well-educated population contributes to a strong workforce-participation rate – currently the highest of the jurisdictions.
Public sector employment is a solid and stable driver of skilled employment in the ACT, delivering job security and a stable income source.
It is also a driver of population growth and reduces uncertainty, allowing local businesses to invest with confidence and contribute to employment growth.
Existing ACT Government policy settings will also provide some buffer.
Through our record levels of investment in education and training and our Skilled and Business Migration program, the ACT Government is working hard to enhance our already skilled workforce.
We are ensuring housing demand is met and we work actively with the private sector over the timing of our comprehensive public works program.
And we are working to ensure our tertiary institutions are positioned for growth in the changing times ahead.
Of course the Commonwealth Government’s presence will remain important to the ACT economy.
We continue to engage with our Commonwealth colleagues so that they are aware of the impact of their decisions on our economy.
We known that global uncertainties and soft domestic economic data might put the Commonwealth budget position under pressure which could have an adverse impact on the ACT economy.
While the Commonwealth Public Service is a buttress to the ACT economy – it is also the source of considerable economic risk.
The Federal Liberal Party has made it clear that on forming office they will cut 12,000 public servants – most of them Canberrans.
This is the same populist Canberra-bashing policy John Howard implemented in 1996.
It smashed our economy – it put Canberrans out of work.
It saw the ACT become the only jurisdiction to go into recession in that year.
While there are many risks to the ACT economy – this is one of the most significant that we face in the next few years.
The Government is well aware that some groups in our community may be particularly susceptible to tough economic circumstances.
These include self-funded retirees who rely on their investments and savings, part-time and casual workers who are vulnerable to changes in working hours and less skilled workers.
The Government provides a range of financial assistance in areas including energy, water and sewerage, public transport, motor vehicle registration, drivers’ licences and spectacles.
The ACT Government Concessions Portal is designed to make it easier for low income households to access information on concessions.
The Government increased the utilities concessions by $131 from 1 July 2011 bringing it to $346 per annum and we are undertaking work to target concessions to those most in need.
Global economic and financial uncertainty will be with us for some time.
The national economic fundamentals and those of the Territory are strong.
But we are not immune from international economic events.
We will continue to monitor developments closely as and stand ready to respond should that be required.